Braves put faith in healing powers

2009 record: 86-76
2009 finish: Third place, National League East
2009 final payroll: $100 million
Estimated 2010 opening-day payroll: $88 million

OFFSEASON ACTION

It’s been a faith-based few months for the Braves, centered on their belief in the restorative powers of Tommy John surgery. Oh, and the power of forgiveness was tested as well.

Tim Hudson returned after a year’s absence recovering from the ligament-replacement procedure that has resuscitated so many careers to make seven starts beginning Sept. 1. He pitched well enough in 42 1/3 innings – 49 hits, 3.61 ERA, 30 strikeouts, 13 walks – that the Braves entered the offseason assuming Hudson would be at the front of their rotation in 2010.

They did their best to trade Derek Lowe, but nobody would take on a contract that pays him $15 million each of the next three seasons. So, instead, they dealt Javier Vazquez, coming off a career year, to the Yankees for middling outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino is barely 19 but wowed scouts with his stuff on the off-Broadway stage of low-Class A Staten Island last year.

The Braves, meanwhile, offered Hudson a testament of faith in the form of a three-year, $28 million contract. “My arm hasn’t felt this good in eight years,” he said recently, and everyone will soon find out if it stays that way.

Lowe, normally a jovial sort, groused publicly about being shopped around, but once Vazquez was traded the Braves and Lowe shifted into forgive-and-forget mode. Hudson and Lowe are joined by Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Kenshin Kawakami to form one of baseball’s best rotations.

Another leap of faith led to Billy Wagner, who signed a one-year, $7 million deal to become the Braves’ closer after an impressive late-season return from Tommy John surgery. He struck out 26 in 15 2/3 innings for the Red Sox, enough to convince Braves GM Frank Wren that at 38 he can approximate the Wagner who has saved 385 games. Takashi Saito, who turns 40 on Feb. 14, also was added to the bullpen.

REALITY CHECK

Although the old and infirm dominated offseason headlines, the Braves are waist-deep in a youth movement, and an exciting one at that.

Is Jason Heyward ready to take over in right field? How about Freddie Freeman at first base? Those two could be fixtures not only in the Braves’ lineup but in All-Star games for years to come. If they aren’t ready now, veterans Cabrera, Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske can hold down the fort until they are. Johnny Damon is a possibility as a stopgap sign, late and cheap.

Other youngsters are already established. Shortstop Yunel Escobar’s career OPS is a tick over .800 and second baseman Martin Prado has sustained a .307 batting average over 800 plate appearances. Catcher Brian McCann is recognized as the league’s best at his position.

The rising stars could offset diminished production from aging third baseman Chipper Jones and a leveling of numbers from outfielders Nate McClouth and Matt Diaz. It all bodes reasonably well for the Braves, but whether it will be enough to surpass the Phillies in the NL East is a separate matter.

Bobby Cox will retire at season’s end with more victories than all but three other managers: Connie Mack, John McGraw and Tony La Russa. He’ll also become the fifth manager to reach 2,000 losses unless the Braves win at least 93 games. As for a second World Series title for Cox, keep the faith: It would require effective, injury-free seasons from Hudson and Wagner at the very least.

Chicago hope hinges on health

2009 record: 83-78
2009 finish: Second place, National League Central
2009 final payroll: $141 million
Estimated 2010 opening-day payroll: $140 million

OFFSEASON ACTION

The Cubs’ offseason was noteworthy not for what the team acquired but for what it shed: Milton Bradley and the Tribune Co. In exchange, Chicago picked up Marlon Byrd, Tom Ricketts and a spring training facility to be built later.

New outfielder Byrd might not have Bradley’s pop (then again, he might: Byrd hit a career-high 20 home runs for Texas in 2009 while the injury- and outburst-prone Bradley hit only 12). New owner Tom Ricketts might not have Tribune’s corporate heft (then again, who needed an ownership group better known for gutting world-class newspapers than for fielding a winning baseball team?). But a club that had reached its boiling point will cool to a simmer, and everybody can get back to lamenting no World Series title in 102 years.

Not that optimism will prevail at HoHoKam Park this spring, despite the recent decision of the Mesa, Ariz., city council to spend $84 million on a new training complex for the Cubs near the current one. The team isn’t any better than it was a year ago. Healthier, perhaps. But not better.

General manager Jim Hendry remains saddled by one of baseball’s most extravagant contracts, the eight-year, $136 million deal he handed left fielder Alfonso Soriano before the 2007 season. In all its back-loaded glory, the contract will pay the hobbling slugger $18 million each of the next five seasons.

Six other players will be paid between $12 million and $17.75 million in 2010: Underperforming outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, first baseman Derrek Lee, third baseman Aramis Ramirez and starting pitchers Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly.

No wonder Hendry had to be frugal simply to keep payroll around the $140 million mark, bringing in Byrd and Xavier Nady to compete in the outfield. Nady is recovering from a shoulder injury and might not be ready for defensive duty by the start of the season.

The only other significant acquisition was Greg Maddux, who, alas, won’t take the ball every fifth day but will serve as an advisor to Hendry.

REALITY CHECK

While the NL Central isn’t exactly a dominant division, every team except the Pirates takes a strong stab at the title periodically. By basically standing pat, the Cubs are projected to again finish behind the Cardinals and could have trouble holding off the Brewers and Reds.

That first World Series title since 1908? Dream on.

At least fans – and players – soon will have more to distract them from the futility than ivy-covered walls. Among Ricketts’ first moves as owner were to green light a remodel of the home clubhouse complete with a players’ lounge and build an ice skating rink outside Wrigley Field for fans.

On the field, everything must fall in place for manager Lou Piniella’s team to make the playoffs. Starting pitching could be fine if Zambrano and Lilly are healthy. Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells are set, and a decent fifth starter should emerge from a group that includes Jeff Samardzija, Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva. Walk-prone Carlos Marmol will be the closer, without competition for the first time.

Offensively, getting full seasons out of Soriano, Ramirez and Lee is key. Catcher Geovany Soto has dropped 40 pounds since waddling his way to a .218 batting average last season and might be poised for a return to his Rookie of the Year form of 2008. The Cubs’ defense will be average at best.

Average, in fact, sums up the Cubs. And $140 million is a lot to pay for average.

Cubs in Haiku
Newest addition
to Billy Goat/Bartman curse:
Soriano deal

Penny-pinching Marlins offer no apologies

2009 record: 87-75
2009 finish: Second place, National League East
2009 final payroll: $37 million
Estimated 2010 opening-day payroll: $45 million

OFFSEASON ACTION

If the Marlins took their recent compliance pledge to an unforeseen level and within a year or two hiked payroll beyond that of the Braves ($97 million in 2009) and Phillies ($113 million) and into the rarefied strata of the Mets ($149 million), would they run away with the NL East? It stands to reason. The Fish finished 12 games over .500 with baseball’s stingiest – and perhaps most adept – front office.
We’ll never know, of course, because Florida has no intention of spending that much. The Marlins’ estimated 2010 payroll already is three times higher than the paltry $15 million they spent on salaries in 2006. With Major League Baseball monitoring their budget the next three years as part of an agreement to ensure revenue-sharing funds are spent on players, the Marlins might nominally increase payroll. But even when they move into their $650 million new ballpark in 2012, they will operate on a tight budget.

And why shouldn’t they? Built around starting pitching and baseball’s best shortstop, the Marlins compete just fine the way they are. They’ve finished over .500 in five of the past seven seasons, beginning with their World Series title in 2003. Maybe the addition of an expensive free agent or two every year would make them the best team in the National League. Maybe not.

This offseason, they sewed up No. 1 starter Josh Johnson with a four-year, $39 million contract. Second starter Ricky Nolasco could get a similar deal if he turns in another strong season. Franchise shortstop Hanley Ramirez is under contract through 2014. Slugging second baseman Dan Uggla, the team’s highest paid player in 2010 at $7.8 million, hasn’t been traded – yet.

The roster will be set once another reliever and perhaps a bargain first baseman are added. Or maybe the reliever will come from a slew of formerly effective pitchers brought in on minor league contracts, including Derrick Turnbow, Seth McClung and Jose Veras. Free agent Russell Branyan is a possibility at first if the Marlins aren’t convinced prospects Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison are ready.

REALITY CHECK

Nine team employees recently returned from the ultimate reality check: a visit to Iraq and Kuwait to support U.S. military troops. The Marlins are the only MLB team to make such a trip. By all accounts, the visit was well received, in part because NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan was one of two players who went (catcher John Baker was the other). Coghlan’s brother, Kevin, is a Marine who served two terms of duty in Iraq.

Coghlan, the team’s left fielder, is emblematic of the way the Marlins like to do business – he’s homegrown, under team control for the next five years and already productive. Next in the pipeline is center fielder Cameron Maybin, a top prospect who has faltered in two auditions since being acquired from Detroit before the 2008 season but who is only 22. Behind Maybin are two exciting 20-year-old prospects: Mike Stanton, an outfielder with tremendous power who needs another year of seasoning, and Matt Dominguez, a third baseman whose bat must catch up with his glove.

The unwillingness of the front office to spend on free agents has left the Marlins thin in areas where the farm system hasn’t produced quality major leaguers. Leo Nunez again will be the closer despite blowing seven saves last year. The back of the starting rotation has question marks. And the addition of a power bat to complement Uggla and overachieving Jorge Cantu in the middle of the lineup would seem necessary for the Marlins to have a realistic chance of catching the Phillies.

Marlins in Haiku
Scolded by Selig
For not paying guys enough?
Sounds fishy to me

The Rangers are poised to pounce

2009 record: 87-75
Finish: Second place, AL West
2009 final payroll: $68 million
Estimated 2010 opening day payroll: $67 million

OFFSEASON ACTION

In early December, general manager Jon Daniels made the bold and potentially flammable trade that sent rotation anchor Kevin Millwood and $3 million to the Orioles for reliever Chris Ray, saving enough money to sign free agent Rich Harden, a talented yet fragile right-hander.

The risk was viewed to be great. After all, Millwood is sturdy and dependable. Harden has all kinds of great stuff, but questionable durability.

Except, in the past two seasons, Harden made 51 starts, pitched 289 innings and had a record of 19-11. Millwood made nine more starts, threw 367 1/3 innings and was 22-20. The innings aren’t insignificant. But, in Texas, even post-Hicks, the money is, and so is Harden’s strikeout stuff.

It might not work, but you can’t hate the strategy.

Beyond that, the Rangers let go of outfielders Marlon Byrd (the Cubs signed him for $15 million over three years) and Andruw Jones (White Sox, $500,000 guaranteed), and brought in Rangers killer Vladimir Guerrero (subtraction by addition, if nothing else) to serve as DH, leaving them an outfield of, from left to right, Josh Hamilton, Julio Borbon and Nelson Cruz.

They also signed left-handed reliever Darren Oliver, effective and very underrated in Anaheim for the past three seasons, and shortstop Khalil Greeneto fill the Omar Vizquel role.

REALITY CHECK

The franchise celebrates its 50th season, beginning with the 1961 Washington Senators, and its total number of postseason victories is one. Not series. Games.

(A HSD cap tip to the boys of ’96, who beat David Cone and the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, only to lose the next three. And the next three to the Yankees in ’98. And the, uh, next three to, right, the Yankees, in ’99.)

Anyway, a decade later, the Rangers again possess the pitching talent and depth to challenge in the AL West, made more difficult because of upgrades in Seattle and Oakland, but eased by what should be a weaker Angels team.

Daniels has been around for four seasons, and in the past three the Rangers have gone from 75 wins to 79 to 87. The pitching staff has come slowly, as has the farm system, but they’re both healthy and the foundation for an organization that expects to contend.

It could happen, too. The offense, particularly if Guerrero believes he has something to prove to the Angels and Hamilton can stay on the field, can be better than the unit that hit 224 home runs and was seventh in the AL in runs last season.

Salary arbitration: Battle of the midpoint

If there’s a case to be made for bliss in a relationship, it’s bound to be reached through compromise. Except in sports.

The bottom line is winning, often at any cost, and compromise is a near-foreign concept. Meeting in the middle? Only if it’s tagging someone in a rundown.

So when Major League Baseball introduced salary arbitration in 1974, it was purely a labor issue, not some kindly action the owners took upon themselves. Union head Marvin Miller and the MLB Players Association had yet to conquer the reserve clause that tethered players to teams. By allowing a group of players, mostly between three and six years of major league service time, to essentially barter for their salary – the player asked one number, the team offered another and either they agreed on something in the middle or went in front of a panel that chose a side – MLB had lost an important fight.

While the salaries for arbitration-eligible players rose from their first three years – substantially in most cases – it allowed teams to keep players under their control. Eventually, when Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally broke the shackles of the reserve clause and ushered in free agency, clubs, through salary arbitration, could at least keep a player under control until they had six years of major league service time, at which point they hit the open market.

The biggest stories about arbitration often involve the enormous salary increases, and they are important, often precedent setting. It’s the other cases, though, the ones that involve compromise, that comprise the majority of arbitration cases. After all, if a club thinks a player isn’t worth what he will get through the arbitration process, it can non-tender, or release, him.

Including the three free agents who accepted arbitration (starter Carl Pavano(notes) and relievers Rafael Soriano(notes) and Rafael Betancourt(notes)), 213 players qualified for the process in 2010 (see the list here). Some were designated for assignment, others non-tendered, a few outrighted to the minors. And on Jan. 19, the final day of pre-exchange haggling, 68 players agreed to a contract. Only 44 players of the 213 ultimately exchanged figures.

Why the heavy push? Why did so many players and clubs work feverishly to reach contracts, when salary arbitration hearings don’t start until Feb. 1?

For the 44 players and their clubs that exchanged salary figures, the battle is now for the middle. If there’s such a thing as competing in a compromise environment, this is surely it.

Much has been made in how much a player is asking or how much the club is offering. The difference between the two is often highlighted in articles, but the real focus is the number between them.

It’s this midpoint figure where a dollar one side or the other offers a moral victory. A dollar below, the club wins. A dollar above, the player gets braggin rights. To give an idea of how closely the sides look at the midpoint figure, take in these three deals that have already been reached with players that exchanged salary figures.

Jonathan Papelbon(notes) reached a $9.35 million settlement with the Boston Red Sox, setting a record for a reliever with four years of major league service time. Papelbon sought $10.25 million, while the Red Sox offered $8.45 million, a difference of $1.8 million. What was the midpoint between Papelbon’s asking and the Red Sox’ offering? Exactly $9.35 million.

Other players to reach midpoint deals include Red Sox reliever Ramon Ramirez(notes) (asked $1.25 million, offered $1.06 million, settled at $1.155 million) and Houston Astros reliever Tim Byrdak(notes) (asked $1.9 million, offered $1.3 million, settled at $1.6 million contract). In a rare bit of symmetry, Tampa Bay and Matt Garza(notes) filed the exact same figures ($3.35 million). They agreed to the salary just before the deadline but didn’t get it finalized in time. In a case of playing nice, they decided to file exactly the same.

Most cases don’t come out smelling so sweet. Some players are compelled to settle for below the minimum rather than risk a lower salary in front of a panel. Reliever Brandon League(notes) will see $25,000 less than the midpoint in his $1.0875 million deal with Seattle, while Milwaukee pitchers Todd Coffey(notes) and David Bush settled with even larger gaps. Coffey’s $2,025,002 deal is $49,998 below the middle, while Bush’s $4.215 million salary falls is $72,500 below that compromise point.

Even lower are the players who reach long-term deals. It makes sense. In exchange for security, they offer their team present-year flexibility. The two best examples are two of the richest contracts handed out this offseason: Seattle ace Felix Hernandez’s(notes) five-year, $78 million deal and Philadelphia starter Joe Blanton’s(notes) three-year, $24 million pact. The midpoint between Blanton’s asking figure and the Phillies offering salary was $8.875 million, and they will pay him $7 million this year, nearly a $2 million “savings.” Hernandez sought $11.5 million while the Mariners offered $7.2 million, and his $6.5 million salary this season leaves them $2.85 million below the midpoint.

One case still without a deal outlines the art of the asking and offering figures, and it may well throw the notion of compromise out the window.

Tim Lincecum’s(notes) entry as a salary arbitration eligible player is a benchmark case. No player with such success has had so little major league service time. Lincecum has landed back-to-back Cy Young awards with under three years of service time, and he qualifies for arbitration as a Super 2 only because the Giants didn’t wait an extra week to call him up in 2007.

Lincecum filed a $13 million asking figure while the Giants offered $8 million, leaving a $10.5 million midpoint. Should they meet there, Lincecum would surpass Ryan Howard’s(notes) $10 million award in 2008 as the highest salary reached for a first-time-eligible player. Still, it’s fair to ask whether the $13 million asking figure is too low.

A comprehensive look at Lincecum’s case in November figured the Giants would indeed file for $8 million but pegged Lincecum’s asking price at $16.8 million for a midpoint of $12.4 million – double Papelbon’s first-year record for a pitcher.

It’s moot now. Lincecum has a decision. He can gamble. The baseball world loves a juicy arbitration case, and this would set the standard. Lincecum may strike gold at $13 million and leave the Giants regretting their offer, or he may strike out and make less this year than Oliver Perez(notes).

He can negotiate a long-term deal, too, one that limits his money but sets up his grandchildren’s grandchildren.

Or Lincecum can settle in the middle, get his record and set himself up for an even bigger payday next year. It’s usually what happens, though agents, players and executives dealing in millions of dollars know the truth.

Compromise isn’t always easy.

The Orioles might be movin’ on up

2009 record: 64-98
Finish: Fifth place in American League East
2009 final payroll: $79.1 million
Estimated 2010 opening day payroll: $78 million

OFFSEASON ACTION

They’re ready. That’s what Baltimore Orioles general manager Andy MacPhail is saying. These Orioles, doormats for a decade, are like snakes, rubbing themselves against the nearest object to start the skin-shedding. They want that attitude, that history, everything involved with it, gone for good.

To forge a new identity, then, new faces must arrive. Starter Kevin Millwood did via trade and closer Mike Gonzalez and infielder Garrett Atkins did as free agents, and suddenly an Orioles team that looked young enough to start a “Twilight” fan club found itself carrying the kinds of veterans that round out championship-level teams.

Maybe they’re not ready for that, but MacPhail believes that something is next, whether it’s a .500 record or simply acquitting themselves in baseball’s toughest division. There is something to be said for respect and admiration from New York and Boston; it portends well.

Which pretty much matches the Orioles’ future today: In a crystal ball, it’s shiny, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis and Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman all primed to excel. They’re good, young and talented, and if they’re not ready now, they will be soon enough.

REALITY CHECK

The stigma is there, and that’s going to prove difficult to change. Two winters ago, Mark Teixeira, the top free agent on the market, listened to Baltimore’s offer and scoffed at it. He ended up signing with the New York Yankees for $180 million, and Baltimore, as usual, played second fiddle..

“We were legit on Teixeira,” MacPhail said. “If you superimposed him on our lineup now, 28, with great work habits, played a position where you could expect him to perform over a long-term deal, local kid. He really would be somebody you could go out for. But if you’re wrong …”

And there’s the rub. The Orioles cannot afford to be wrong with a free agent as they build around their excellent young core. The Gonzalez deal runs two years, Millwood’s and Atkins’ one, and Baltimore doesn’t find itself tied up into the kinds of long-term contracts that hamstring so many other organizations.

The struggle, of course, is taking that leap from talented bunch to winners, and it’s not exactly a caterpillar-turned-butterfly process.

“While our club has shown some individual progress, we need to show some collective progress as a team,” MacPhail said. “You can only be down for so many years.”

Every year the Orioles pick themselves up, only to get knocked back. One of these days, they’re going to keep standing, celebrating, remembering what winning feels like. It’s intoxicating, and the Orioles will bet it’s coming sooner than later.

Youth travails hold back Diamondbacks

2009 record: 70-92
Finish: Fifth place, NL West
2009 final payroll: $73.8 million
Estimated 2010 opening day payroll: $79 million

OFFSEASON ACTION

Only a couple of years ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks were young and they were talented and they were in the NLCS. They’re still young, mostly.

They’re also sorting through how they got from those 90 wins to these 92 losses, whether youth is all it’s cracked up to be, and when exactly they’ll stop paying Eric Byrnes.

Handed a last-place season, GM Josh Byrnes did engage in one of the more interesting trades of the winter. That he was widely perceived to have gotten the worst of it – the Yankees got Curtis Granderson, the Tigers got Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke, the Diamondbacks got Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy – doesn’t mean he did. Not yet.

Everybody does love Scherzer and Schlereth, or at least their potential, and you would understand if Byrnes had heard just about enough about potential. This is, after all, the roster of Chris Young and Stephen Drew and Chad Tracy, among others. Except he’s back on that same bus with Jackson and Kennedy. Jackson, 26, has put together two good halves – the first of 2008 and the first of 2009. Kennedy has been hurt or ineffective or both at the big league level, for whatever that’s worth. He is just 25 and 3½ years out of USC, so the book’s not nearly closed yet.

Byrnes did get a break when Adam LaRoche was offered $17 million over two seasons by the Giants and turned it down, turns out, to play for the Diamondbacks for about half that.

The good news is the team is still young and talented. Whatever that means anymore.

REALITY CHECK

This is probably it for Brandon Webb in Arizona.

If all goes as expected, the sinkerballer will again pitch with a clean and healthy shoulder (he had surgery over the summer), and will again be among the better pitchers in the game, and will go into free agency with at least one Cy Young Award, two runners-up, and a reputation for throwing the heaviest ball in the league. The D’backs can’t afford him then.

And if the club finds itself sinking again, Byrnes almost certainly would consider adding Webb’s name to list of recent Cy Young winners to change teams mid-season.

Until then, however, the D’backs are counting on Webb to head a rotation of Dan Haren, Jackson, Kennedy and, presumably, either Billy Buckner or Kevin Mulvey. It could be the second-best rotation in the division, behind San Francisco’s. It also could get a little sideways, because that’s a big potential cluster.

Meantime, on offense, the Diamondbacks were limited because of their tendency to strike out. A lot. Mark Reynolds, at 26, has the only two 200-strikeout seasons in history, the club led the majors in strikeouts, and just added LaRoche, who whiffed 140 times last season. On the other hand, Justin Upton will soon be a star, Reynolds is a stud, Young is a good kid who’ll get better, Gerardo Parra had an eye-opening rookie season, and, yeah, that’s a lot of potential.