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Top 20 Countdown: No. 1 Jimmie Johnson

February 4, 2010 Leave a comment

2009 finish: 5th

Our 2010 predictions:

• Jay Busbee: 1st
• Jay Hart: 1st
• Jenna Fryer: 1st
• Dustin Long: 2nd
• Nate Ryan: 1st

2009 statistics
Finish  Poles  Wins  Top 5  Top 10

1         4          7          16        24

The countdown
No. 20: Martin Truex Jr.   |   Career stats
No. 19: Brian Vickers   |   Career stats
No. 18: Kasey Kahne   |   Career stats
No. 17: Clint Bowyer   |   Career stats
No. 16: David Reutimann   |   Career stats
No. 15: Kevin Harvick   |   Career stats
No. 14: Ryan Newman   |   Career stats
No. 13: Greg Biffle   |   Career stats
No. 12: Dale Earnhardt Jr.   |   Career stats
No. 11: Jeff Burton   |   Career stats
No. 10: Matt Kenseth   |   Career stats
No. 9: Juan Pablo Montoya   |   Career stats
No. 8: Kurt Busch   |   Career stats
No. 7: Mark Martin  |   Career stats
No. 6: Carl Edwards  |   Career stats
No. 5: Kyle Busch  |   Career stats
No. 4: Tony Stewart  |   Career stats
No. 3: Jeff Gordon  |   Career stats
No. 2: Denny Hamlin  |   Career stats
No. 1: Jimmy Johnson  |   Career stats

2010 outlook:Is there anything that Jimmie Johnson could do now that would surprise NASCAR? He’s the four-time reigning champion, the most dominant driver in the sport, the reigning Associate Press male athlete of the year, and over is a driver who seems to have a gear that none of his competitors can access. He’s the best there is and there’s absolutely no reason to believe he’s slowing down anytime soon.

But you know all that. You also know the reasons for his success – the unique kinship with crew chief Chad Knaus, the financial muscle of Hendrick Motorsports, the regular-season strategy that has him peeking just in time for the Chase. Thing is, so much of what’s put him at the top of the heap hasn’t dimmed with age. He’s every bit as dangerous right now as he was in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Indeed, Johnson is close to approaching Tiger Woods status – that would be pre-car accident Tiger Woods – in which his presence in the field is in itself enough reason to terrify other drivers. When drivers see Johnson in your rearview mirror or working his way relentlessly through the field, they know he will find his way to or at the front of the pack.

With this in mind, there is no compelling reason to pick against Johnson in 2010, hence the almost unanimous consensus in our Yahoo! Sports poll.

To be the man you’ve got to beat the man. Is anybody capable of beating Johnson? We shall see.

What you need to know: Johnson is one of the most statistically impressive drivers in NASCAR history. He’s won at least three races in each of his eight full Cup seasons, a stretch in which he’s never failed to notch at least 20 top-10 finishes. He’s won 24 races in the last three seasons, or 11 more than anyone else. Johnson’s greatest enemy isn’t anyone on the track. It’s indifference. And so far he’s only shown the desire to keep his historical run going for as long as it lasts.

Top 20 Countdown: No. 3 Jeff Gordon

February 3, 2010 Leave a comment

2009 finish: 3rd

Our 2010 predictions:

• Jay Busbee: 5th
• Jay Hart: 3rd
• Jenna Fryer: 4th
• Dustin Long: 8th
• Nate Ryan: 6th

2009 statistics
Finish   Poles   Wins  Top 5   Top 10
3               1             1          16            25

The countdown
No. 20: Martin Truex Jr.   |   Career stats
No. 19: Brian Vickers   |   Career stats
No. 18: Kasey Kahne   |   Career stats
No. 17: Clint Bowyer   |   Career stats
No. 16: David Reutimann   |   Career stats
No. 15: Kevin Harvick   |   Career stats
No. 14: Ryan Newman   |   Career stats
No. 13: Greg Biffle   |   Career stats
No. 12: Dale Earnhardt Jr.   |   Career stats
No. 11: Jeff Burton   |   Career stats
No. 10: Matt Kenseth   |   Career stats
No. 9: Juan Pablo Montoya   |   Career stats
No. 8: Kurt Busch   |   Career stats
No. 7: Mark Martin  |   Career stats
No. 6: Carl Edwards  |   Career stats
No. 5: Kyle Busch  |   Career stats
No. 4: Tony Stewart  |   Career stats
No. 3: Jeff Gordon  |   Career stats
No. 2: Revealed Feb. 4

2010 outlook: If their head-to-head battle wasn’t in the headlines before, it will be in 2010: Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon.

Prior to 2009, even with Johnson winning three straight championships, Gordon still had the edge. He was “Four Time,” the active driver with the most titles and one of only three to have won at least four championships. But now he has company – Johnson – and the battle for supremacy is on.

For Gordon, the desire to win Championship No. 5, a quest going on nine years now, is still there. But so is the frustration of not winning more often – he’s been to victory lane just once in his past 77 races – an irritation compounded by having to watch his teammate hoist trophy after trophy after trophy.

“It’s been frustrating, for sure,” Gordon said. “We’ve won a lot of races over the years. We also know that our teammates are winning races. If we’re going to really be a factor in the championship, we’ve got to win more races.”

Is Gordon, at 38, still capable of rattling off a handful of wins? Well, considering Gordon, not Johnson, actually had the best average finish in 2009 – 10.2 for Gordon compared to Johnson’s 11.1 – you’d have to believe he is.

Johnson, however, has a clear advantage in bonus points – both from leading laps and winning races. Johnson earned 105 extra points for winning three Chase races and leading laps in eight of the 10 events, while Gordon – who didn’t win a Chase race – managed only 25 bonus points for leading laps.

Yes, Gordon posted a pair of runner-up finishes in the Chase and finished in the top 10 in five others. But clearly not even that is good enough to unseat Johnson.

What you need to know: That 10.2 average finish in 2009 is Gordon’s second best since 1998 and sixth best in his Hall of Fame career. Had he had better results on the road courses (23.0 average finish) and superspeedways (24.5) – Gordon’s bread and butter in past years – that average would have been even better.

Danica Patrick announces her Nationwide slate: a dozen races

January 31, 2010 Leave a comment

The wait is over! A dozen lucky tracks will be the site of Danicamania this year, and Danica fans in Vegas, California, Miami and other locales can start officially making their race plans.

Danica Patrick and JR Motorsports have announced Danica’s 2010 Nationwide schedule, and it basically goes like this: Florida, Cali, Vegas, loooong time off, then most of the rest of the slate.

Still up in the air is whether Patrick will race in the Feb. 13 season opener at Daytona. She’ll be racing in an ARCA event on Feb. 6, and based on her performance in that race, she may be slotted for the seat in the No. 7 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet. (The car’s already entered; it’s just a matter of whether Danica will be driving it.) Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be running the 88 in the Nationwide race at Daytona, and after that, Kelly Bires will slide into the seat of that car; Bires is available to run the 7 if Patrick isn’t deemed ready.

After Daytona, Patrick will race in California at the Auto Club Speedway on Feb. 20 and in Las Vegas on Feb. 27. She will then take a four-month break from NASCAR — she does have a day job, you know — and will return to the Nationwide series in late June at New Hampshire.

Here’s how the rest of her schedule shakes out: Chicagoland Speedway (July 9), Michigan International Speedway (Aug. 14), Dover International Speedway (Sept. 25), Auto Club Speedway (Oct. 9), Charlotte Motor Speedway (Oct. 15), Gateway International Raceway (Oct. 23), Texas Motor Speedway (Nov. 6), Phoenix International Raceway (Nov. 13) and Homestead-Miami Speedway (Nov. 20). She’ll be missing out on racing at Bristol, Talladega, Atlanta and Richmond, among other notable tracks. This schedule — heavy on the 1.5-mile cookie cutters — should give her a chance to get comfortable at some of NASCAR’s more straightforward, so to speak, tracks.

Already, tracks are capitalizing on Danica’s presence; emails from the tracks where she’ll be visiting are already showing up promising special Danica deals. She will bring in fans, and that’s not a bad way to start.

Top 20 Countdown: No. 7 Mark Martin

January 29, 2010 Leave a comment

2009 finish: 2nd

Our 2010 predictions:

• Jay Busbee: 8th
• Jay Hart: 5th
• Jenna Fryer: 3rd
• Dustin Long: 10th
• Nate Ryan: 4th

2010 outlook: What does Mark Martin do for an encore?

Regardless of age, 2009 was one of the best seasons of the then-50-year-old’s 27-year Cup career. He won five races, or one more than he’d won in his previous nine seasons, collected a career-high seven poles, finished second in the standings for a fifth time and overall was really, really, really happy.
2009 statistics

Finish   Poles   Wins   Top 5    Top 10
2               7           5           14              21
The countdown
No. 20: Martin Truex Jr. | Career stats
No. 19: Brian Vickers | Career stats
No. 18: Kasey Kahne | Career stats
No. 17: Clint Bowyer | Career stats
No. 16: David Reutimann | Career stats
No. 15: Kevin Harvick | Career stats
No. 14: Ryan Newman | Career stats
No. 13: Greg Biffle | Career stats
No. 12: Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Career stats
No. 11: Jeff Burton | Career stats
No. 10: Matt Kenseth | Career stats
No. 9: Juan Pablo Montoya | Career stats
No. 8: Kurt Busch | Career stats
No. 7: Mark Martin | Career stats
No. 6: Revealed Jan. 29

He can’t do better, can he? Well, maybe he can.

“I can’t know what the competition is going to do, but I do know that physically I’m better,” Martin said earlier this month. “I am more ready today than I was a year ago right now. I know that my race team is more ready than they were a year ago right now. I know our pit stops are faster than they were a year ago right now. I know that we have a better understanding of our race cars than where we were a year ago right now.

“So those things I do know. I’m not Mr. Optimistic, I’m not Mr. Pessimistic. I’m Mr. Realistic. And realistically speaking, I can’t tell you what the result will be in 2010. But … we are better than we were a year ago. I just don’t know how much better our competition is.”

The one aspect Martin doesn’t have to worry about is the Chase schedule. Like Jimmie Johnson, the playoff schedule sets up well for Martin, who’s won at nine of the 10 Chase tracks.

Assuming he qualifies for the Chase, which wasn’t a slam dunk in 2009 no thanks to a couple of early season blown engines, Martin figures to test Johnson and whoever else is in the hunt. And if he were to win it, at 51, he’d be the oldest Cup champion – by six years.

What you need to know: This will not be Martin’s last Cup season. Just before the ’09 Chase began, Martin signed a contract extension that will keep him with Hendrick Motorsports through 2011.

Top 20 Countdown: No. 10 Matt Kenseth

January 25, 2010 Leave a comment

2009 finish: 14th

Our 2010 predictions:

• Jay Busbee: 16th
• Jay Hart: 11th
• Jenna Fryer: 8th
• Dustin Long: 14th
• Nate Ryan: 9th

2009 statistics
Finish  Poles  Wins  Top 5  Top 10
14            1           2          7               12
The countdown
No. 20: Martin Truex Jr. | Career stats
No. 19: Brian Vickers | Career stats
No. 18: Kasey Kahne | Career stats
No. 17: Clint Bowyer | Career stats
No. 16: David Reutimann | Career stats
No. 15: Kevin Harvick | Career stats
No. 14: Ryan Newman | Career stats
No. 13: Greg Biffle | Career stats
No. 12: Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Career stats
No. 11: Jeff Burton | Career stats
No. 10: Matt Kenseth | Career stats
No. 9: Revealed Jan. 26

Outlook for 2010: Kenseth can’t possibly hope for a better start to a season than he had in 2009 when he won the first two races of the year. But he’d be more than happy to forget the rest of the year – a long, slow slide which ended with him missing the Chase for the first time since its inception in 2004.

Never a dominator and always a grinder – he’s won more than two races in a season only twice in his 10-year Cup career – Kenseth butters his bread with top 10 after top 10. This approach has enabled him to finish in the top 10 in six of the last eight seasons.

For him to get back into Chase contention, the key will be to grind at a higher level. In the seven races leading up to the Chase, he finished between 10th and 14th in six of them. While it’s a reliable run, it’s no way to make up ground when you’re trying to get back in the playoff hunt. He’ll also need to improve his qualifying; he averaged a starting position of 21st, which put him in the tall grass each week from the moment the green flag dropped.

Kenseth obviously has the talent to run in the front of the pack; there aren’t many current full-time drivers with both a Daytona 500 trophy and a Sprint Cup championship – three to be exact: Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. And consistency obviously isn’t an issue with Kenseth, either. But perhaps taking a few more chances, a few more risks, will pay off in more single-digit finishes.

What you need to know: For 2010, the familiar No. 17 will be running with an unfamiliar sponsor. DeWalt, which had sponsored Kenseth for nearly a decade, ended its affiliation with the 17 at the end of last season. But Daytona 500 winners rarely have trouble finding sponsorship, and Kenseth picked up Crown Royal’s regal purple. Crown Royal had previously sponsored Jamie McMurray until he became a casualty of NASCAR’s four-team limit.

NASCAR’s problems are the media’s fault. Sorry about that.

January 24, 2010 Leave a comment

Yes, if you believe NASCAR and some owners, not only is NASCAR not struggling, it’s doing just swimmingly — and any suggestion to the contrary is purely media-created.

NASCAR and its drivers have spent time crafting a hopeful, fan-friendly message, and throughout Media Week, they’ve stayed on message. But since there’s considerable negative chatter about NASCAR — attendance, rules changes, sponsor defection — NASCAR and its owners have apparently come up with a playbook right out of politics: blame the media.

Their ire has mainly focused on broadcasters, but I nonetheless have an obvious vested interest in this. So what I’ll do here for the next few paragraphs is present some of the quotes from both sides for your review. (Gracias to media good guy Dustin Long for originally compiling these.) This’ll take awhile, so settle in — get yourself a drink and a snack, find a comfortable chair or tell the boss you’re working on an important project, and then follow along below.

First off, we have Jack Roush teeing off on the media:

“We have not had the level of support from the TV studio box that the other sports have. I would hope that Fox and ESPN and everybody else really thinks about what they’re doing. We had more passes last  year than we ever had. We had more passes for the lead than we’ve ever had. We had more different winners than we’ve ever had. [Long notes that there were more winners than 2008, but less than 2007.] We had more cars finishing on the lead lap than ever had. The competition was great. It wasn’t bad. It wasn’t subject to critcism for every move that NASCAR made or every move a team made but sometimes it sounded that way back from the communication box.”

“[International Speedway Corp.], they’ve done an analysis … and for all of last year all of their race tracks had not had one complaint from anybody who bought a ticket about something regarding the race not working the way they thought. So there’s no complaint from the fans regarding competition. The complaints have come from reporters and from media that has maybe a vested interested. if you look at Darrell Waltrip, you look at all the other ex-drivers, Rusty Wallace, the ex-crew chiefs that are out there, it’s not unreasonable to say that they’ve got some ax to grind over something that frustrated them in their careers on the firing line. We need to reel that back in. That needs to be something that is not carried out front to the fans and to the public.  We need to talk about how many passes we’re having. We need to talk about how close the racing is on the final laps, we need to talk about how contentious things are in the garage and the rest of it and not fault the teams for the decisions they make and not fault NASCAR for the government they provide. NASCAR racing is the best run form of motorsports any place in the world. They may be the best form of sport any place in the world.”

I’m not going to go so far as to say that if Mr. Roush believes that there have been no complaints from fans about competition, he’s more out of touch than one of those Japanese soldiers living in caves who thought World War II was still going on in the 1970s. Not going to say that at all. But I will recommend that he visit more websites than roushfenway.com once in awhile.

Fox and ESPN, the targets of Roush’s criticism, weren’t quite so restrained. Fox Sports spokesman Eddie Motl offered this reply:

“Our on-air team is as passionate about NASCAR as any driver, owner, crew chief or fan, and our analysts speak their mind based on the immense experience and success they enjoyed during their on-track careers. The broadcast booth is not a pulpit, neither is it a mouthpiece, and FOX Sports respects that. It is place from which to describe the action and provide thoughtful commentary, which all fans deserve. NASCAR fans know their sport and they’ll know if a broadcaster holds back, and once you cross that line, all your credibility is gone.”

George McNeilly, senior director of communications for ESPN, had this response:

“We have a very simple-to-understand mission at ESPN and that’s to serve sports fans. One of the ways that we do that, maybe the most pronouced way we do that is that we hire authentic and credible former athletes, former drivers, former crew chiefs, former coaches to analyze what is going on on the field of  play. That’s what we do.”

You can criticize Fox or ESPN for their technological composition of a race or for their goofy sidelights (Digger … ugh), but I don’t believe anybody can criticize the former drivers for their lack of passion. (The transplanted hosts, like Chris Myers and, from a few years back, Brent Musberger, are another matter. Those guys do broadcast like they’re punching a clock — surely NASCAR doesn’t prefer that to passion.) You align with a guy because he connects with the fans, you can’t get upset if he doesn’t always toe the corporate line.

I can understand the position that NASCAR is in here. You can receive a thousand compliments, but one stinging criticism — particularly one that hits you in a spot you know is weak — will obliterate all the goodwill. It’s almost a betrayal of sorts, a sense that the broadcasters are abandoning ship, getting while the getting’s good, et cetera.

But really, blaming the media is a tired, fake-populist approach, and a shortsighted one at that — just as the media needs NASCAR, NASCAR needs the media. Picking a public fight with the exact people who can help you craft your image — and, if they were so inclined, could tarnish that image in a heartbeat — is both bad business and bad personal relations. Mark Twain used to say you don’t pick fights with a guy who buys his ink by the barrel; he was referring to newspapers, but you could just as easily translate “buying barrels of ink” to “counting site visitors in the hundreds of millions.”

NASCAR is trying the hack political tactic of setting oneself up as the one true bastion of truth, which necessarily means that anyone who disagrees with you is peddling lies. Politicians do this, as do broadcast networks, radio talk show hosts, and your significant other. But it’s flawed at its core — no side has a monopoly on, or claim to, the absolute truth. It’s all opinion, perspective and spin.

NASCAR and the media have a fine opportunity here to really grow this sport, but it’ll never happen if both sides are simply sniping at each other or, worse, failing to recognize their own flaws. And I’ve gone on way long here, so I’m going to wrap this with a big finish.

My fellow NASCARites, what unites us is far greater than what divides us. Let us acknowledge our differences, respect one another’s views, and always strive to move foward. Only the racing should go in circles! God bless NASCAR, and God bless America!

Categories: Nascar Tags: , , ,

NASCAR relaxes rules; now it’s the drivers’ turn to step up

January 23, 2010 Leave a comment

Say this for NASCAR: the sport does listen to its fans.

In a sharp contrast to sports like the NFL, which seems hell-bent on bending fans to its iron will (their current slogan is an unbelievably arrogant “You want the NFL? Go to the NFL.”), NASCAR has announced an entire slate of rules changes. The rules — many of which are just rollbacks of current tight regulations — will, in theory, improve the on-track racing and allow for more character to the races.

First off, NASCAR has lifted restrictions on bump-drafting and increased the size of the restrictor plate at Daytona, which will ratchet up the power of the cars. And anybody not in the mood for trading paint will probably want to sit this race out.

The impetus for the changes was last November’s Talladega race, in which NASCAR handed down a bumping ban on the morning of the race which resulted in an afternoon that had all the competitive fire and drama of a line at the bank. Fans howled, broadcasters griped and drivers complained, and while NASCAR didn’t quite admit fault, their rule changes are an implicit indication that they’ve realized something was out of whack.

The cars will also have a different look and feel to them with the (re)introduction of the spoiler, replacing the rear wing on the Car of Tomorrow. Drivers testing the spoiler have so far been pleased, and the appearance of the spoiler should gratify longtime fans.

However, one rule which will stay is the yellow-line law, which prohibits passing below the yellow line at tracks like Talladega. While some drivers said that they would love to see the yellow line rule eliminated on the final turn of the race, most indicated that such a situation would cause a lot more problems than it would solve.

Interestingly, NASCAR — which has long taken heat for its perceived attempt to create vanilla drivers — has expressly indicated that it wants drivers to “mix it up a little bit differently,” in top dog Brian France’s words. Let’s be honest, everybody wants to see a bit of drama both on the track and in the garage, and if somebody takes a little swing at somebody else — particularly somebody who deserves it — what’s the harm?  As long as we don’t see any Gilbert Arenas-type guns-in-the-garage situation, it appears that NASCAR may not be playing school principal with some of the guys who act up now and then.

“It doesn’t mean that you get a free pass out-of-jail card,” NASCAR president Mike Helton said, apparently meaning “get out of jail free.” “But it certainly means that what we are encouraging the competitors [is] for their character and their personality, within reason, to be unfolded.”

And that’s an important point to make. The rules have been loosened, and it’s now up to the drivers to step up and carve out a name for themselves. “We will put it back in the hands of drivers,” vice president of competition Robin Pemberton said, “and we will say ‘Boys, have at it and have a good time.’”

It’s obviously early yet, but this is, so far, a very good sign for the 2010 season. Your move, drivers.

Top 20 Countdown: No. 11 Jeff Burton

January 23, 2010 Leave a comment

2009 finish: 17th

Our 2010 predictions:

• Jay Busbee: 9th
• Jay Hart: 9th
• Jenna Fryer: 17th
• Dustin Long: 10th
• Nate Ryan: 16th

2009 statistics
Finish    Poles   Wins   Top 5   Top 10
17             0           0         5           10

The countdown
No. 20: Martin Truex Jr.   |   Career stats
No. 19: Brian Vickers   |   Career stats
No. 18: Kasey Kahne   |   Career stats
No. 17: Clint Bowyer   |   Career stats
No. 16: David Reutimann   |   Career stats
No. 15: Kevin Harvick   |   Career stats
No. 14: Ryan Newman   |   Career stats
No. 13: Greg Biffle   |   Career stats
No. 12: Dale Earnhardt Jr.   |   Career stats
No. 12: Jeff Burton   |   Career stats
No. 10: Revealed Jan. 25

2010 outlook: Since joining Richard Childress Racing midway through the 2004 season, Jeff Burton has been a stabilizing force for an organization that was still looking for an identity three years after the death of Dale Earnhardt Sr. Though RCR has struggled to keep up with the likes of Hendrick Motorsports – and who has? – the team’s three drivers (Burton, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer) have been perennial Chase contenders since 2006.

That all changed in 2009, a season in which RCR didn’t win a race, didn’t place a driver in the Chase and one in which they erased all the momentum built during a 4-5-6 finish in 2008. But rather than chalk up ’09 as a complete waste, team owner Richard Childress took a more proactive approach, reorganizing team management midway through the season in an effort to get a jump on 2010.

The September change appeared to work, especially for Burton, who recorded three of his five top fives in the last four races of ’09, including back-to-back second-place finishes to end the season.

Going into the new season, RCR appears to be heading in the right direction, though that is a familiar theme here. Last February, Burton talked about how excited he was to see how the offseason work the team had done would pay off. At first glance, it did, though by June it was clear the entire team was not going to be much of a player.

A year later, here they are again, in the exact same position, hoping but not knowing how good they will be.

What you need to know: If Burton is to rebound to make the Chase, he must be better during the summer months. Last season, Burton went 18 races between June 14 and Oct. 25 without a single top 10. Burton experienced similar (though not quite as devastating) lulls in 2007 and ’08, too.

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